Simple, open question for you all to discuss...who will be the #1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft, and why?

I can't tell you which for sure, but it will come from one of the following four players, IMO:

Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State
Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech
Rey Maualuga, LB, U.S.C.

I don't see any QBs, RBs, WRs having separated themselves as can't-miss, franchise-changing offensive "saviors," although Harvin, Moreno, Heyward-Bey or Ford COULD still surprise and wind up carrying that mantle.

The #1 pick is about safety and production. The first three guys above will probably be viewed that way, and Maualuga will be the darkhorse because of some lingering football-related character concerns.

Okay if you wanted to bring up safety and production you shoulda left Johnson out...and who is Ford? i hope not jacoby...No GM in there insane mind would draft a CB #1...so that leaves, according to your projection, laurinaitis and maualuga...maualuga's workout numbers will look better than laurinaitis's...laurinaitis's production will look better...both are safe...i think it will come down to the sheer pedigree and intimidation factor of the players and maualuga has laurinaitis beat on both.
my mock draft...http://condraft.com/mocks/member-mocks/?id=5535...has maualuga going first overall...laurinaitis...tenth...

No mention of Matthew Stafford or, in keeping with Dolphins tradition, either Michael Oher or Andre Smith?

I think Its Selvie. Speed Rusher is becoming proboly the most important poisiton on D now IMO. Id say a dark horse is Rak from Texas if they go undefeated..

I think in order to give this any consideration, you have to also take into account who may be 1st overall (or in the running for the dubious achievement). I think the teams that should be obvious at this point are Cincinnati and Detroit. Also some teams like Houston could be in contention. So I'll discuss those three possibilities.

Houston -
With the emergence of Slaton, and their ever improving defensive line, I'd say the best pick for them is probably going to be Corner, WR, or interior Line (unlikely). So maybe Malcolm Jenkins or Brian Robiskie, both from Ohio State.

Cincinnati -
For Cincy, I could see possibly a RB, DT, CB, or Safety. Obviously they're a team that needs to build through the draft, so a safer pick like DT Evander Hood, or the top contending DT (in April) would do them wonders. How about a RB like James Davis or Javon Ringer?

Detroit -
Last but not least, how about Detroit? Right. Let's try to break this down. They're gonna need at least 15 new starters next season. So my guess, by default, is the BPA. James Laurinitus, Ray Maulaunga, or Michael Oher.

Don't forget Crabtree POM, he's eligible. No chance Jenkins goes #1 when he is not a lock to be a NFL CB. Laurinaitis also will drop to the mid first. I don't think Jacoby will be near the discussion. I think of course Andre Smith will be up there as well with Oher.


I think Detroit goes with Laurinaits, Mauluga or Spikes.(they drafted Cherilus) Cincy probably goes with a guy like Cody from Bama, Marks from Auburn or Sapp or Johnson. Houston I could see drafting Jenkins, Crabtree or Harvin(if he leaves). They could also go with Oher or Smith. Although they may not go WR since Walter is playing well with Johnson and Daniels is an excellent TE.

I think the chiefs will get it judging from their remaining schedule and i think they will take Oher or Stafford dpending on who their coach and gm are at that time. If they trade LJ though they could ge another low 1st and maybe get Oher and Tebow/Moreno

Not sure I follow the "they drafted Cherilus" logic as a reason why they wouldn't draft Oher or Smith. Everyone said that Cherilus would have to be a RT at this level so adding a top LT would significantly improve their offensive line.

I agree. Oher seems like he's a guy who can play LT at the next level, and this team still has a lot of rebuilding to do. Offensive and Defensive line is key, and I think if they build through these newly acquired picks, it should be a top priority.

I agree... I think Detroit gets the top pick and goes with the top tackle in the draft -- ANDRE SMITH.

Interesting. It'd be nice if Smith declares this year. I think he could definitely be a top 10 guy, assuming his post-season goes as well as possible. But what about Eugene Monroe from Virginia? He's another guy who might challenge Oher as the #1 OT off the board. At 6'6" 318, he looks like he's the real caliber NFL LT.

haven't seen too much from monroe but i that was him trying to guard everson griffen in the USC gae then i'll take a pass. how does he compare to dbrickshaw ferguson?

That really depends on who's picking now doesn't it???


Detroit - If it's the Lions I can see it being Matt Stafford, Michael Oher, Andre Smith or Eugene Monroe.....

Cincy - Rey Mau (who's the bpa IMO)

KC - Any of the big three tackles or Stafford....unless a guy like McCoy or Sanchez declares and blows everyone away in work outs

You ever think about joining the IMD?

Having scouted Stafford on Saturday against Vanderbilt, he doesn't have the look of a #1 overall guy to me. I can see why people like him -- the arm strength, makes some great throws, leadership etc -- but he seems prone to the occasional mental lapse which destroys the team.

If the Lions drafted Stafford I'd be forced to go and kick WCF's a$$ myself.

It will be Stafford. There are gonna be at least 3 teams wanting a QB in this draft, Chiefs, Lions, niners perhaps more. Stafford of right now is really the only QB that warrants a first round pick. McCoy and Bradford have stated they are gonna stay another year. Josh Freeman is really the only guy that can challenge Stafford for the #1 QB in the draft.

Yeah. And the Lions are definitely going to be thinking QB with another top 3 pick in the draft.

unless they get rid of alex smith i don't see the niners taking a qb in the first. but i agree about freeman i watched him a couple of times this year and he can play.

Unless you'd prefer another receiver, Adam?

Freeman has all the tools, but he is not quite a finished product and really needs to stay in school. I agree he is probably a first rounder if he comes out, but #1 pick might be stretching things a bit.

Freeman needs more polishing, with a big Senior campaign and great workouts he has an outside shot at overall #1 in 2010, IMHO, strangely enough the Lions actually do need a solid, #2, a Randall-El, or Brandon Stokely type, complementary WR. Quan Crosby at the top of the third or trading up to take him late in the 2nd might even make sense.

I think the signing of Daunte Culpepper and the fact that Drew Stanton still hasn't started a game, both factors indicate that the Lions won't be hunting for QB in the first round. 2 year deal for Culpepper, hopefully the Lions will get a shot at Sam Bradford in a couple years. He's about the only QB I'd be okay with them taking.

Hey Adam... what's going to happen in Detroit in the offseason as far as coach and GM are concerned? I think that will clearly have some bearing on things. If it's status quo, then they might forego the QB and go OL. A new guy coming in may want to start to build around a new QB.

I think the coaching staff may be on their way out, but Martin Mayhew has been auditioning for that GM spot the last few weeks. All the moves they've made recently, from trading Roy, to benching Kitna, to the signing of Daunte Culpepper, can be accredited to Mayhew. I think he's done well so far, but I'd be interested in knowing his thoughts on how he will handle the draft and free agency.

The coaching may or may not be replaced. I don't know that bringing in a new Coach at this point will do anything positive for the team. Like you said, if they bring in a new guy, they will still have no QB. And with all the needs at OL, DL, TE, LB, DB, QB, and kick returner, I don't think a new coach changes anything. I think Marinelli's made his bed, and now will have to lay in it just a while longer.

You heard it here 1st. Nate Davis will be a better pro than Bradford, Stafford or Tebow.

I will eventually...probably wait for one closer to the draft day....

My new list....


Lions - Andre Smith/Eugene Monroe, Rey Mau or Michael Johnson


Chiefs - Any big 3 tackle

Bengals - Rey Mau or Michael Johnson

Raiders - Michael Johnson or a big 3 tackle




Is there any possible any other team could be picking first???

Of course, if the Lions decide to trade back from the #1 overall

And come to think of it, Crabtree might be good enough for someone to want to jump up to #1...

On the other hand, this is the Lions...they'll probably just draft Crabtree themselves.

Ah man, don't even jest.

I think whoever gets the top pick will look to add whoever is the top offensive tackle (Andre Smith, Michael Oher, or Eugen Monroe).

I really disagree....his 40 is going to kill him. I think he's goes 10-20

40 is the most overrated thing in the NFL. Quickness in and out of cuts is the most underlooked thing IMO for any skill position.

Short shuttle is the one that the scouts will be more interested in. When a player has natural hands and a build like Crabtree does, the 40 isn't the end-all, be-all for a top WR candidate. I think he's an elite lock for the top 3.

That was the one I was thinking about! Hes undoubtly the best prospect since Fitz

Remember 3 years ago he was a HS QB and B-Baller that some schools wanted to move to safety! He is still growing into the position and at 6'2.2" 214 and about 4.52 with no special speed work he could get into the 4.46-4.48 range with a bit of work on his running form. This will be a solid WR draft but I think if he stays in school he could make it to the #1 spot one day, IMHO.

I'm thinking Michael Johnson is going to have a Mario Williams-esque combine, and the Lions will take him assuming they don't trade it (which they probably SHOULD do). The leading pass rusher for the Lions is Dewayne White, with 5.5 sacks. Everyone complains about Johnson's lack of production, but he does have 13 TFL despite facing many double teams.

Every year, fans of the team with the #1 overall pick hope that their team trades out of it and every year I see them feeling disappointed when it doesn't happen.

In order to be able to trade out of the #1 spot, there needs to be a ready-made superstar who is an obvious #1 pick and, just like last year, there isn't one this year. There are a few top guys, but none really stand out above the rest.

I agree with the comments about Michael Johnson having a Mario Williams type of combine and possibly getting his stock up there. If the Lions have the number one pick, like it looks like its going to be, and they stay with their Tampa 2 type defense, they could very well go with Johnson. But don't rule out a OT. Drafting a tackle high has been the common choice in the last couple of years, plus it is never a bad idea to have a surplus of good lineman on a team.

Here's a dark horse Eugene Monroe OT Virginia outperforms Oher in the "silly season" and gets overdrafted!

I think Detroit kind of has to take Andre Smith. He's BPA, and I think he'll be a consensus BPA to most.

Plus they'll have two more picks during the next 32 selections, and another 2 picks in the third round to pick defensive players.

I just don't see this team drafting a quarterback. They may trade for a guy like Derek Anderson or Lienart or Sage Rosenfells, but Detroit isn't just in danger of losing a fanbase, they're in danger of losing their city if the Big Three auto-makers don't pull out of their financial woes. Whether they move or stay, they NEED to WIN, RIGHT AWAY.

Aside from Smith, if they decide to make a splash it could be with Crabtree, which would be insane and their fans would revolt if they took another WR in the top 10. As far as defensive players who could go this early, Michael Johnson would be a mistake, but this is Detroit. Screwing up the draft is what they do.

Brian Orakpo? Taylor Mays? Malcolm Jenkins? Seems a bit early to draft CB or FS, but stranger things have happened.

We know they'll be looking for a marketable superstar and that they won't be able to trade out of picking #1 overall.

Smiths the front runner right now IMO

The key words there are "right now". This time last year we all had Glenn Dorsey as the #1 pick and look how that turned out...

By the way, I totally agree that Andre Smith is the #1 guy right now.

I aint sayin', I'm just sayin'...

There is no stand out QB. Plus there is potential for Cassel, Anderson and McNabb to all find new homes.

I doubt QB goes too early. (I do wonder though. Will the success of Ryan and Flacco help some of these QBs go earlier than otherwise would of?)

By the remaining schedule, Detroit is a shoe in for the number one!

1 Detroit Andre Smith (the game is won at the line of scrimmage and Det will get back to basics and pick safe)

It will change a dozen times by then who the consensus #1 is. Its impossible to get it right in early December

Just have to give my Bears dream, not that you asked.

They will pick any where from 12 to 18

1st WR DHB
2nd OT Jason Smith
3rd S Myron Rolle

Rolle is going to Oxford. He has a year of eligibility left, and he's an education first guy. He has more reason not to come out than any other player.

Sorry.

Never has a truer word been spoken. Odds are it will still end up being a d-lineman or QB, even if not truly deserved.

I didn't realize it was set in stone and official that Rolle is going to be a road scholar.

I will believe it when I see it. He can easily play in the NFL, then go to Northwestern or any med school he wants and still become the surgeon he wants to be.

How did you miss that? It was all over ESPN for the week prior to and following the FSU v. Maryland game.

He's said that he's leaning toward going to Oxford. He risked missing the Maryland game for his interview, so you can see from that where his priorities lie. Plus, he still has a year of college eligibility left, so there's no reason why he has to go pro now. He's already in grad school.

Rolle may decide not to even play pro ball.